1.2

Supporting public authorities

The 21^st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), in Paris in 2015, ended with the signature of an international agreement to limit global warming to 2°C on average compared with the beginning of the 20^th century. This agreement came into force on 4 November 2016. It commits States to drastically cutting their CO₂ emissions by 2025-2030.

No realistic climate simulations factoring in the COP21 targets had hitherto been available. To assess the multi-sectoral (on the economy and energy sectors for example) and climate repercussions of such commitments, in 2016 Météo-France climatologists, together with economists from the CIRED (International Research Centre on the Environment and Development), developed the first CO2 emission scenarios from 2015 to 2100 to be compatible with the 2°C target and involving the level expected for 2030. These scenarios, all of which entail negative CO₂ emissions from 2060-2070, were assessed in terms of global warming by the Earth system model CNRM-ESM1 of the Météo-France National Centre for Meteorological Research. The macroeconomic model IMACLIM, developed at the CIRED, was then used to estimate what structural transformations would be required in the energy sector for these scenarios, compatible with the objectives of the COP21, to become a reality. IMACLIM indicates that, from the mid 21st century, energy sources that do not emit CO₂ (biomass, tidal, wind, solar or nuclear) will have to make up the bulk of the energy mix worldwide. That said, in the same way that it will not be possible to completely move away from using fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), CO₂ emissions will continue. It will therefore be necessary to harness the advantages of zero-emission technologies (such as coupling use of biomass to generate electricity with carbon sequestration on a massive scale) if we have any hope of achieving the climate targets of the COP21.

Mountain ecosystems and economic activities associated with winter tourism are among the most vulnerable to climate change, and such observations justify giving priority to developing climate services to support adaptation policies. The GICC/ADAMONT projects in the Alps and INTERREG/CLIM’PY in the Pyrenees thus set out to scale up the tools and assessments available in these areas. They bring together Météo-France’s operational departments and National Centre for Meteorological Research in partnership with external organizations, IRSTEA and the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in particular.

Since the ADAMONT project was first launched back in 2015, some 30 climate simulations of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble (climate change projections at European level) have been processed to force Météo-France’s snow model Crocus and draw up new snow cover trend scenarios by mountain range, altitude and exposure across France’s mountain ranges through the 21^st century. Consideration of snow-grooming and the contribution of artificial snow in addition to natural snow cover have also been studied to ascertain the impacts of climate variations on skiing in resorts.

For its part, the CLIM’PY project launched in July 2016 is aimed at fine-tuning this assessment at the scale of a cross-border mountain range, in close liaison with the Spanish and Andorran teams. Beyond work on the current and future climate trends in the Pyrenees (extreme events and snow cover), CLIM’PY is part of a broader programme supporting development of the Pyrenees Climate Change Observatory, which comprises various components on biodiversity, forests, natural hazards and water resources.

In 2016, Météo-France shored up its position in the renewable energy sector by initiating a partnership with the Ministry of the Environment’s Climate and Energy Directorate to lay the groundwork for launching the 3^rd invitation to tender for offshore wind farms.

The institution has been selected to perform risk studies in zones identified as being well-placed to develop offshore wind energy projects off the coast of Dunkirk. This study includes a measurement campaign out at sea: launching into the sea and operating a buoy equipped with LiDAR technology and conducting a series of analyses. These seek to assess the risks from wind, swell, extreme waves and turbulence (vertical wind shear) that may have an impact on the operation of wind turbines.

In 2016, Météo-France opened up its distance learning program on climate change and use of the DRIAS climate data portal to external audiences. Called CICCLADE (which stands for Understanding the impacts of climate change via distance learning), this course is intended to meet the expectations of professionals keen to gain a clearer grasp of the challenges of climate change. Trainees from a wide range of professional sectors – public institutions, water board, large cities, Ministry of the Environment, insurance companies or journalists among them – have been able to learn from it so far, and the program is to be continued in 2017.

• Our article on the subject